close
close

Blake Snell covers the Dodgers analysis


Blake Snell covers the Dodgers analysis

The defending World Series champions are significantly improving their roster. The Dodgers and two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract on Tuesday, multiple sources told MLB.com.

Snell, 31, was a free agent for the second straight season after opting out of his two-year, $62 million contract with the Giants last year. The left-hander didn’t sign his contract with San Francisco until March 19, but he was clearly determined to complete his second run as a free agent much quicker and was one of the first free agents to negotiate a deal this time around.

Snell did not have time to properly prepare for the season at the start of 2024. He posted a 9.51 ERA in his first six starts and was on the injured list twice because of lower-body ailments. However, Snell soon managed to regain his peak form, posting an incredible 1.23 ERA in his last 14 starts – including a no-hitter on August 2nd. That was reminiscent of the way he finished the 2023 season with the Padres, posting a 1.20 ERA in his final 23 starts en route to the National League Cy Young Award.

As a member of the Rays, Snell also won the 2018 American League Cy Young Award. He owns a 3.19 ERA with an 11.2 K/9 over nine seasons with Tampa Bay, San Diego and San Francisco.

2024: 20 GS, 104 IP, 3.12 ERA (124 ERA+), 2.43 FIP, 3.1 fWAR
Career: 211 GS, 1096.2 IP, 3.19 ERA (128 ERA+), 3.35 FIP, 24.5 fWAR

Here’s a breakdown of this move from all angles, from MLB.com experts.

What this means for the Dodgers
Via Dodgers beat author Juan Toribio

The Dodgers’ priority this winter was to add an ace to their starting lineup, and they identified Snell as their top target. The Dodgers previously pursued Snell before he signed with the Giants in March and again before the trade deadline when San Francisco was eliminated from postseason contention. On Tuesday they finally got their husband.

Snell joins a starting lineup that will include Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers are looking to add another starter this winter, including Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. This is a starting rotation that should improve significantly compared to last season.

The move to Los Angeles reunites Snell with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who was executive vice president of baseball operations for the Rays when the left-hander was drafted in the first round by Tampa Bay in 2011. MORE >

What this means for the Giants
About reporter Thomas Harrigan

Losing Snell – not least to the rival Dodgers – is a major blow for a San Francisco club lacking star power and facing major rotation uncertainty behind perennial star Logan Webb. Internally, Snells is expected to include former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who returned from Tommy John surgery and posted a 4.70 ERA with 43 strikeouts over 30 2/3 innings in 2024 Absence will arise. The Giants could also look for a replacement for Snell on the free agent market.

Effects on the hot stove
About senior national reporter Mark Feinsand

Signing Snell could have a ripple effect on the rest of the starting pitching market.

According to sources, the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles were already in the mix before Snell’s decision to sign with the Dodgers, leaving the three AL East clubs to continue their search for a pitcher. The Red Sox and Yankees are believed to be in the market for a left-handed starter, which could ultimately lead to a bidding war between the rivals for Max Fried. The Orioles are facing the possible loss of star player Corbin Burnes, who is considered the best free-agent starter available. The Giants, who now need to replace Snell in their rotation, are believed to have strong interest in Burnes. The O’s, meanwhile, could enter the Fried sweepstakes or pursue other arms like Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi or Walker Buehler.

Dive deep
About analyst Mike Petriello

It may seem like the Dodgers’ addition of Snell is an example of the incredibly rich getting richer, but remember that they won the World Series despite a barely functional rotation – no disrespect to Ben Casparius , but you don’t want World Series games Started by Ben Casparius – and with Flaherty and Buehler gone in free agency and every returning starter suffering an injury (or, in Bobby Miller’s case, a inexplicable ineffectiveness), last year The 20th best rotation desperately needed help.

What Snell is offering is no secret. He probably won’t throw as many innings as you’d like (he’s only topped 130 innings twice in nine seasons), but the innings he does throw will be extremely effective. Over the past three years, 216 starters have thrown 2,000 pitches, and Snell ranks first in batting average, second (behind Paul Skenes) in slugging, is tied for fifth in strikeout rate, and is sixth overall Place in the WOBA, an OPS-like key figure. He’s really good, that’s the point, even if way too many walks and nibbles in the zone drive up the pitch count and prevent those deeper excursions.

Of course, “starters who go deep” isn’t exactly in style anymore, so maybe that doesn’t matter to the Dodgers. What Snell offers is excellent fastball velocity (95.9 mph, fourth-most among lefty starters) and three excellent swing-and-miss pitches, as his changeup, slider and curve all have whiff rates of over 40% had. There were a handful of pitchers (at least 150 such pitchers) who had two such pitches last year, such as Griffin Jax’s sweeper and changeup. Snell was the only one with three. As long as you can live with the five-inning starts, the occasional inconsistency, and the near refusal to just throw strikes – it’s fair to say that watching him on the stat sheet is more entertaining than actually seeing him on the mound to watch – – It’s hard to find a more effective starter per pitch than Snell.

Stat knowing
Via MLB.com Research Staff

24.2%: That was the difference between Snell’s strikeout rate (34.7%) and walk rate (10.5%) last season, the seventh-largest gap in MLB (minimum 100 innings pitched) and a six percentage point improvement over that 18.2% mark he posted during this season his 2023 Cy Young season. Snell was still a bit wild in 2024 (3.8 BB/9), but He decreased his walk rate by 2.8 points compared to last year and increased his strikeout rate by 3.2 points.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *