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Beauty & Wellness Briefing: Off-price beauty will thrive despite tariffs and economic chaos


Beauty & Wellness Briefing: Off-price beauty will thrive despite tariffs and economic chaos

This week, I checked in with retail experts to analyze last week’s earnings from Ross and TJX, the parent company of TJ Maxx and Marshalls, and learn how the off-price beauty category might thrive given potential 2025 tariffs. In addition, the nail care brand Olive & June will be acquired and there will be executive reshuffles at Ulta Beauty, Deceim and LVMH.

TJX, parent company of off-price leaders such as TJ Maxx and Marshalls, reported 3% sales growth during its third-quarter 2025 earnings call on Wednesday. The company reported net sales of $14.1 billion in the quarter ended November 2 and reached $56.42 billion in sales over the past 12 months, an increase of 7.83% corresponds to the previous year.

As previously reported by Glossy, the off-price beauty and wellness categories continue to be a successful part of TJX’s merchandising strategy, with mass, prestige and luxury brands quietly priced at 30-70% off RRP across the channel sell.

“We do great work in beauty (because it’s a constant flow of freshness”), said Ernie Herrman, CEO and president of TJX. “We believe it is a traffic and visit generator as well as a form of extreme value.” … We are crushing competition for (beauty) value.”

According to Placer.ai, a location analytics company, about half of all shoppers at TJ Maxx, Ross, Marshalls and Burlington visited a store more than once a month from June to October this year. The company also reported year-over-year traffic growth for TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Burlington.

TJX has more than 5,000 stores in nine countries, including TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Home Goods, Sierra, Winners, Homesense and TK Maxx in Europe.

Meanwhile, Ross Stores reported revenue of $5.1 billion for the third quarter of 2025, also ended Nov. 2, up 1% year over year. Ross Stores’ fiscal 2023 revenue was $20.4 billion. The company operates 1,836 locations in 43 states, as well as 356 locations of DD’s Discounts, which targets lower-income shoppers in 22 states.

With consistent year-over-year growth, the off-price category has proven its stability, even amid economic uncertainties such as possible tariffs in a second Trump administration.

“Many brands and market leaders I speak to every day are very concerned about tariffs,” said Liza Amlani, founder of consultancy Retail Strategy Group and a former off-price buyer. “(But) off-price is one of the retail channels, perhaps the only one, that is bullish when it comes to discussing tariffs.”

During the campaign, President-elect Donald Trump promised higher tariffs on foreign-made components and finished goods to boost sales of domestically made goods.

According to market research firm William Blair, President-elect Donald Trump could impose a tariff of up to 60% on goods imported from China – up from the current 7.5% to 25% – and a flat tariff of 10% to 20% on all other imported goods. However, the company made it clear in its forecasts that this could change based on various conditions.

Nevertheless, the off-price category is likely to benefit. TJX’s Herrman said this has already begun, with many brands and retailers already over-ordering to avoid 2025 tariffs.

“We looked at (tariffs) several years ago, and I would tell you that this is one of the areas where our model is a big advantage,” Harrman said. “The majority of our inventory is purchased from brands (where we don’t even have any insight into the origin of these goods and don’t really want to get involved). …Suppliers could bring in finished goods early – this happened last time – which could actually lead to additional availability of goods at advantageous prices for us. … That’s a scenario that’s just as likely as anything else.”

Amlani saw that too. “Many brands are currently purchasing a lot of components in advance to avoid some of the tariffs that may apply,” she said. “So we’re seeing a lot of activity that will result in excess inventory.”

TJX works directly with brands that have excess inventory and imports only a small percentage of its merchandise, Herrman said. And for the brands hit by tariffs and hoping to pass them on to retailers, off-price is unlikely to help.

“This also applies to Ross Stores,” said Adam Orvos, VP and CFO. “We will not be a leader in price increases,” he said. “In the event of a (possible) rate increase, our focus will be on maintaining a price umbrella versus traditional retailers and providing the best value to the customer.”

Another insight from the earnings calls was the changing buyer profile of off-price. TJX’s Herrman said the company’s buyer demographic has recently become younger, including more consumers ages 18 to 34.

“Our goal is to continue to attract younger customers, but unlike other retailers who limit their customer base from a demographic perspective, we don’t do that,” Herrman said. “We want to continue to act on a broad basis. So as we get younger (buyers), I don’t want us to give up on the older customers.”

TJX’s Herrman also shared his plans to expand into Spain with the opening of 100 TK Maxx stores in 2026. In other expansion news, TJX completed its 35 percent minority investment in Brands for Less, a Dubai-based off-price retailer with approximately 100 stores in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. During the call, Herrman shared that TJX is planning to expand into Mexico for the new brand.

Change of leadership:

  • Nicola Kilner, CEO and co-founder of Deciem, is expected to step down at the end of the year. Deciem is the parent company of affordable skincare brand The Ordinary, which sells DTC and through Sephora and was acquired by Estée Lauder Companies in 2021. Her successor has not been named.
  • Chantal Gaemperle, the long-time HR manager at LVMH, is leaving the company. She joined the group in 2007 and most recently served as EVP of Human Resources. Her successor has not been named.
  • James Conroy is the new CEO of Ross Stores, effective February 2, 2025. He will replace current CEO Barbara Rentler, who is retiring. Conroy was formerly CEO of Boot Barn, a full-price western clothing retailer with more than 420 stores in 46 states.
  • Monica Arnaudo, Ulta Beauty’s chief merchandising officer, will retire in spring 2025. Her successor has not yet been named. She joined Ulta Beauty in 2017. Arnaudo’s resume includes L’Oréal, Estée Lauder Companies, Chanel, Nordstrom and Sephora.

Worth knowing:

  • A flurry of investments was announced last week: Menopause-focused women’s health brand Alloy announced a $16 million Series A investment from Emmeline Ventures, Amboy Street Ventures and others. Meanwhile, Clean Skin Club, which sells disposable facial towels for acne-prone skin (DTC) and on Amazon, closed a $32 million investment led by Astō Consumer Partners, making it the new CPG’s first investment. Fund. Finally, hair care brand Crown Affair closed a $9 million Series B funding round led by True Beauty Ventures, an investor in Caliray, Moon Juice, Dieux and other leading beauty and wellness companies.
  • Olive & June, the nail salon chain turned nail care brand, is to be acquired by Helen of Troy Limited for $225 million in cash and a $15 million earnout. Founded in 2013, Olive & June currently sells polishes, press-on nails, accessories and various nail care items through DTC and through Target, Walgreens and Walmart. Helen of Troy owns beauty brands such as Dry Bar, Revlon and Hot Tools.
  • Turkish Airlines last week unveiled its new amenities packages, made in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin, available to all business class passengers. The bags contain limited edition Lanvin cosmetic products such as lip balm and hand cream as well as branded cosmetic bags. Other non-Lanvin essentials are also included, including socks, an eye mask and a toothbrush set.
  • Sephora plans to open 20 new stores in the UK by the end of 2027. The LVMH-owned retailer currently has six Sephora locations across the UK. “I know we sometimes say that retail, and particularly retail in the UK, is doomed” and gloom. … My answer to that is always, “Boring retail is dead, but exciting retail is truly alive and thriving,” Sephora Global President and CEO Guillaume Motte told British newspaper The Times.

Statistics of the week:

Market research firm Circana released a report last week on cosmetics industry sales from January to September, as well as the company’s purchasing forecasts for the fourth quarter. Circana noted that the U.S. prestige cosmetics market grew 7% to $22.8 billion in the first nine months of the year, while mass market sales increased 2% compared to the same period last year. Makeup increased 5% in both sales and units sold, with the Lips category outperforming – posting a 21% increase in sales and a 23% increase in units sold. However, according to the company, it has been prestige fragrances that have been the fastest-growing category so far in 2024, with sales rising 14% in dollars and 12% in units year-over-year through September.

In the headlines:

Olivia Rodrigo becomes Lancôme’s global brand ambassador. Men are getting fillers more than ever. How to do beauty advent calendars right. Rapper Stormzy named Dyson ambassador. Khloé Kardashian launches her first solo fragrance with Luxe Brands. David Beckham founds longevity supplement company IM8. The Chinese cosmetics label Mao Geping goes public in Hong Kong. Nathalie Emmanuel’s new role is Giorgio Armani’s global makeup ambassador.

Listen:

Richard Christiansen, founder of Flamingo Estate, joins the Glossy Beauty Podcast to discuss his brand’s fundraising journey – which has included more than 160 investor meetings over the past two years – and his latest book, The Guide To Becoming Alive ,” out this week from Chronicle Books.

Need a brilliant summary?

How “Wicked”… took over everything. How Ulta Beauty serves its 44 million loyalty members. How Puma turned the Las Vegas Grand Prix into a big brand moment. Target’s quarterly sales lag as Walmart and TJX Cos. flourish. A surprise concert by Charli XCX in Times Square is part of H&M’s loyalty strategy. Mona Kattan’s Kayali is the latest brand to make a name for itself with gourmet fragrances.

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